Housing Market Update

July was a month of changing expectations. Early signs of cooling inflation and a softer labor market briefly raised hopes that mortgage rates could ease, but stronger economic data, rising energy prices and a more cautious Federal Reserve shifted the outlook by month’s end. Treasury yields climbed sharply after the Fed’s July meeting, reinforcing that borrowing costs may remain elevated for longer than many expected.

Markets spent the month reacting to inflation reports, labor market data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, with each new release influencing expectations for where mortgage rates could go next.

Key Highlights:

• June’s employment and inflation reports showed signs the economy is gradually cooling, with slower job growth and lower-than-expected CPI and PPI readings offering some encouragement that inflation pressures may be easing.
• Rising oil prices, renewed geopolitical tensions and a historically strong labor market later in the month renewed inflation concerns and pushed Treasury yields higher.
• Following the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, the 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.2% — its highest level since 2007 — adding upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Federal Reserve Updates:

• The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% throughout July but made clear it is not yet ready to begin lowering rates.
• A split 9-3 vote at the July meeting, along with comments from Chair Kevin Warsh, signaled policymakers remain focused on inflation and will continue making decisions based on incoming economic data.

What This Meant for Buyers and Homeowners

• Mortgage rates remained volatile throughout July as investors reacted to every major economic report and Federal Reserve update.
• While conditions briefly improved early in the month, stronger economic data and rising Treasury yields reinforced that buyers should continue planning for a higher-rate environment.
• Buyers and homeowners who stay pre-approved, financially prepared and informed about market changes will be in the best position to act when opportunities arise.

Bottom Line:

July demonstrated how quickly the mortgage market can change. Although inflation showed signs of cooling, stronger economic data and ongoing inflation concerns ultimately shifted expectations toward higher-for-longer interest rates.

As markets look ahead to upcoming inflation reports and the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, mortgage rates are likely to remain sensitive to new economic data. Buyers and homeowners who remain prepared and flexible will be best positioned as market conditions continue to evolve.

June brought a mix of encouraging and challenging news for the housing market. Treasury yields trended lower during parts of the month, creating some opportunities for mortgage rates to improve. However, persistent inflation, elevated energy prices and a cautious Federal Reserve continued limiting how quickly borrowing costs could fall.

Markets remained focused on inflation reports, labor market data and the Federal Reserve’s June meeting as investors looked for clearer signals on when interest rates may begin to ease. While economic conditions showed signs of gradual cooling in some areas, inflation remained the biggest factor influencing mortgage rate movement.

Key Highlights:

• The 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.39% by the end of the month, supported in part by lower oil prices, providing some relief for mortgage rate pressure.
• Inflation remained elevated throughout June, with Headline PCE at 4.1%, Core PCE at 3.4%, CPI rising 4.2% year over year and Core PPI increasing 4.9%, all remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target.
• Mortgage rates continued to fluctuate as markets balanced lower Treasury yields against persistent inflation concerns.
• The labor market showed signs of gradual cooling, with slower hiring activity in the JOLTS report, while overall employment remained resilient.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued influencing energy prices and contributing to inflation uncertainty.
• Household affordability remained under pressure as consumer spending continued to outpace income growth, highlighting the financial challenges facing many prospective homebuyers.

Federal Reserve Updates:

• The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% during its June 17 meeting.
• Policymakers emphasized that inflation remains the primary obstacle to lowering interest rates.
• Strong labor market conditions reinforced the Fed’s decision to maintain its current policy stance.
• The Federal Reserve indicated it will continue monitoring inflation and employment data before considering future rate changes.
• Markets are closely watching upcoming economic reports for additional clues about the timing of potential rate cuts later this year.

What This Meant for Buyers and Homeowners

• Lower Treasury yields helped improve market conditions at times, creating opportunities for some buyers and homeowners.
• Mortgage rates remained elevated overall as persistent inflation offset many of the benefits from declining bond yields.
• Affordability challenges continued as household income declined while consumer spending increased, placing additional pressure on monthly budgets.
• Buyers who were pre-approved and financially prepared remained best positioned to take advantage of favorable market opportunities when rates improved.
• Homeowners considering refinancing benefited from monitoring market movements closely, as rate changes continued responding quickly to new economic data.
• Inflation, employment reports and Treasury yields remained the key indicators influencing mortgage rate direction throughout the month.

Bottom Line:

June demonstrated that while mortgage market conditions are gradually improving, inflation continues to slow the pace of lower interest rates. Declining Treasury yields offered encouraging signs, but elevated inflation and a cautious Federal Reserve kept mortgage rates sensitive to every major economic report.

As markets continue watching inflation, employment data and future Federal Reserve decisions, buyers and homeowners who stay informed and prepared will be in the strongest position to capitalize on opportunities as market conditions evolve.

May brought continued volatility to financial markets as inflation concerns, elevated energy prices, global conflict and shifting Federal Reserve expectations all influenced mortgage rate movement. Treasury yields trended higher throughout much of the month, pushing mortgage rates upward and creating affordability challenges for some buyers.

While economic growth and employment remained resilient, inflation continued running above the Federal Reserve’s target, causing markets to scale back expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026. At the same time, developments in the Middle East contributed to higher energy prices and added uncertainty to both inflation and interest rate forecasts.

Key Highlights:

• The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 4.66% during May before settling closer to 4.5% by month-end, keeping upward pressure on mortgage rates.
• Average 30-year mortgage rates moved into the mid-6% range as bond market volatility and inflation concerns persisted.
• Inflation remained elevated throughout the month, with CPI reaching 3.8%, PPI rising 6.0% year-over-year and Core PCE coming in at 3.3%.
• Higher oil and gas prices tied to ongoing Middle East conflict contributed to inflation concerns and market uncertainty.
• Labor market data remained relatively stable, with weekly jobless claims near 210,000 and private employers adding 109,000 jobs in April.
• Markets closely monitored geopolitical developments, including U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could influence future energy prices and inflation trends.

Federal Reserve Updates:

• Inflation remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target throughout May.
• Markets reduced expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 as economic data continued showing resilience.
• Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Federal Reserve Chair, prompting investors to watch for potential policy changes.
• Strong employment conditions and persistent inflation gave the Federal Reserve less urgency to begin lowering rates.
• Federal Reserve policymakers continued signaling a cautious approach as they evaluate inflation and economic growth data.

What This Meant for Buyers and Homeowners

• Mortgage rates remained elevated throughout May, increasing monthly payment costs for many buyers.
• Affordability challenges continued as higher borrowing costs reduced purchasing power.
• Homebuyers benefited from staying prepared and monitoring market conditions, as rates remained sensitive to economic reports and breaking news.
• Refinancing opportunities remained limited for many homeowners due to higher rate levels.
• Even small movements in mortgage rates continued to have a meaningful impact on monthly payments and long-term borrowing costs.
• Buyers and homeowners should continue watching inflation reports, Treasury yields and Federal Reserve updates for clues about future rate direction.

Bottom Line:

May was defined by persistent inflation, higher Treasury yields and continued uncertainty surrounding both global events and Federal Reserve policy. While the economy and labor market remained relatively strong, those same conditions made it more difficult for interest rates to move lower.

Mortgage rates are likely to remain sensitive to inflation data, employment reports and geopolitical developments in the months ahead. For buyers and homeowners, staying informed and prepared remains one of the best ways to take advantage of opportunities as market conditions evolve.

April brought a more volatile housing market as mortgage rates reacted to a mix of inflation data, Federal Reserve signals and growing geopolitical uncertainty. While the broader economy remained stable, rising energy costs and global headlines created more day-to-day movement in rates, making the market feel less predictable for buyers and homeowners.

Key highlights:

• Mortgage rates moved up and down throughout the month as the 10-year Treasury fluctuated between roughly 4.28% and 4.38%, creating short windows of opportunity for buyers and homeowners.
• Inflation remained a key pressure point, with Producer Price Index (PPI) data and Core PCE readings showing price growth is still above the Federal Reserve’s target.
• Energy prices stayed elevated due to ongoing instability in the Middle East and disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, adding pressure to inflation and interest rates.
• The labor market remained resilient, with jobless claims staying low and employment conditions stable, giving the economy continued support.
• Markets remained highly reactive to both economic reports and global headlines, creating more short-term volatility than earlier in the year.

Federal reserve updates:

• The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady in April, maintaining its “wait-and-see” approach as inflation remains elevated.
• Fed officials continued signaling that future rate cuts will depend on stronger evidence that inflation is cooling.
• The labor market’s stability gave the Fed more flexibility to hold rates steady instead of cutting quickly.
• Markets also reacted to leadership developments, with Kevin Warsh moving closer to potentially succeeding Jerome Powell, creating speculation about future policy direction.

What this meant for buyers and homeowners

• Mortgage rates remained unpredictable, which meant timing mattered more than usual for locking in financing.
• Buyers who stayed pre-approved were better positioned to act quickly when rates briefly improved or the right home became available.
• Affordability challenges remained, especially for first-time buyers, as higher rates and inflation continued to impact buying power.
• Homeowners considering refinancing needed to watch for short-term dips in rates, as opportunities could appear and disappear quickly.
• The market continued to reward preparation and flexibility over waiting for the “perfect” rate.

Bottom line:

April showed that mortgage rates are still being shaped by a mix of inflation, Federal Reserve policy and global uncertainty. While the economy remains stable, outside pressures — especially energy costs and geopolitical risks — are keeping rates more reactive and less predictable.

For buyers and homeowners, the best strategy remains the same: stay informed, stay prepared and be ready to act when the right opportunity opens up.

March was defined by continued volatility across markets, driven largely by inflation concerns, Federal Reserve signaling, and escalating geopolitical tensions. While the broader economy showed resilience — particularly in the labor market — persistent inflation and global uncertainty kept upward pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates, leading to more day-to-day movement than buyers have seen in recent months.

Key highlights:

• Mortgage rate movement was closely tied to fluctuations in the 10-year Treasury, which ranged from ~4.12% to ~4.38% throughout the month
• Inflation remained a central concern, with Core CPI holding at 2.5% and Core PCE projections rising to 2.7%
• Labor market data stayed relatively strong, with jobless claims hovering near multi-week lows and steady (though slowing) job growth
• Bond market volatility increased, with sell-offs pushing yields — and mortgage rates — higher at multiple points
• Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and Iran, drove oil prices higher, contributing to renewed inflation pressure
• Markets reacted quickly to both economic data releases and global headlines, creating more short-term rate swings

Federal Reserve updates

• The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady in March, signaling a cautious, data-driven approach
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation — not employment — remains the primary factor guiding policy decisions
• The Fed indicated expectations for at least one rate cut in 2026, but timing remains uncertain and dependent on sustained inflation improvement
• Updated projections showed higher expected inflation (Core PCE at 2.7%), reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative
• Policymakers continue to monitor both inflation trends and labor market softening before making adjustments

What this meant for buyers and homeowners

• Mortgage rates remained volatile, often shifting day to day based on bond market movement and global events
• Strong labor data supported economic stability but did not meaningfully bring rates down on its own
• Inflation pressures — especially from rising oil prices — kept upward pressure on borrowing costs
• Buyers faced a market where timing and strategy mattered more, making pre-approval and readiness key advantages
• Less competition in some markets created opportunity, even as affordability remained a challenge
• Homeowners considering refinancing or equity strategies needed to stay alert to short-term rate dips

Bottom line

March reinforced a key theme for 2026: mortgage rates are being driven less by any single data point and more by a combination of inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy, and global uncertainty. While the economy remains stable, persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions are keeping markets — and rates — reactive. For buyers and homeowners, staying informed and prepared continues to be the best strategy in a market where conditions can shift quickly.

February brought slightly better mortgage rates, steady job growth and new global headlines that kept markets cautious. 

• Mortgage rates improved slightly during the month as bond markets strengthened. 
• The 10-year Treasury gradually fell from about 4.24% early in the month to around 4.02% by the end of February. 
• Job growth stayed steady, with January adding about 130,000 jobs and unemployment holding near 4.3%. 
• Some reports showed hiring may be slowing, which could signal a cooling labor market. 
• Global news — including trade policy changes and tensions in the Middle East — created uncertainty that markets continue to watch. 

Federal Reserve updates 

• The Federal Reserve did not make any major policy changes during February. 
• Economic data showed inflation is still elevated but not accelerating. 
• Strong job growth early in the month suggested the economy remains stable. 
• However, softer private-sector hiring reports later in the month showed signs that the job market may be slowing. 
• Because of mixed signals, the Fed is continuing to monitor inflation and employment data closely before making future rate decisions. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers saw slightly better mortgage rates as bond markets improved. 
• Steady job growth helped keep the housing market stable. 
• Buyers who stayed pre-approved were ready to act when homes became available. 
• Homeowners may see refinance opportunities if rates continue improving in the months ahead. 

Bottom line 

February showed gradual improvement in mortgage rates, steady economic growth and ongoing global uncertainty — leaving the housing market stable but still sensitive to economic updates. 

January saw a steady housing market as investors focused on the Federal Reserve and new economic updates. 

• Mortgage rates stayed mostly flat, with small changes tied to headlines. 

• The 10-year Treasury moved within a narrow range, keeping rate movement limited. 

• Inflation data showed prices are still rising, just more slowly than before. 

• Job growth remained steady, but fewer companies are hiring. 

• These signs point to a cooling economy — not a weak one. 

Federal Reserve updates 

• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January. 

• This came after three straight rate cuts, so markets expected a pause. 

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the job market is stabilizing. 

• The Fed also removed language that suggested job losses were becoming a bigger risk. 

• Inflation is not getting worse, but it’s still above the Fed’s target. 

• Because of that, the Fed is taking a cautious “wait and see” approach. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers benefited from steady mortgage rates, making it easier to plan and shop confidently. 

• Staying pre-approved helped buyers act quickly when the right home came on the market. 

• Homeowners didn’t see major rate drops, but stability keeps refinance options open if rates improve later. 

Bottom line 

January brought steady rates, a cautious Federal Reserve, and signs of a slowing — but stable — economy, keeping both buyers and homeowners in a good position to plan ahead. 

December wrapped up the year with a calm housing market and a big update from the Federal Reserve.  

• Mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury stayed mostly the same all month. 

• Some reports showed job losses in the private sector. 

• While most people are still working, unemployment has slowly increased. 

• These signs show the job market is cooling, but not in trouble. 

Federal Reserve updates 

• The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% in December. 

• This move was expected, and markets were ready for it. 

• The Fed said it wants to be careful before cutting rates again. 

• Inflation is improving, but it’s still higher than the Fed’s goal. 

• Because of that, the Fed may pause and watch how the economy reacts. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers who stayed pre-approved were ready to act when the right home came along. 

• Homeowners didn’t see big rate drops yet, but a slower economy could bring refinance options in 2026. 

Bottom line 

December ended with steady rates, a careful Federal Reserve and a slower economy — setting the stage for possible opportunities in the new year. 

November was a quieter month for the housing market, with most changes happening behind the scenes. 

• Mortgage rates stayed mostly the same as investors waited for important economic reports that were delayed by the government shutdown. 

• The 10-year Treasury moved a little up and down but stayed in a tight range, helping keep mortgage rates fairly steady. 

• Some inflation signals showed prices are still high, especially for services, while job numbers showed people are still finding work. 

• Overall, the market was calm, but many were waiting for clearer data to know what comes next. 

Federal Reserve updates
 

• The Federal Reserve showed mixed opinions on what to do next, with most members wanting to keep rates steady for now. 

• Toward the end of the month, the government reopened, allowing delayed jobs and inflation reports to be released again. 

• These new reports will help the Fed decide its next move at its December meeting. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers had a good chance to plan ahead, since rates didn’t change much during the month. 

• Homeowners were encouraged to keep an eye on rates, as small drops could create chances to refinance and lower monthly payments. 

• Real estate agents could use this time to reconnect with buyers who had been waiting and help them get ready to act. 

Bottom line 

November was about staying patient and getting prepared. With fresh data coming and the Fed’s next decision ahead, the market could start to move more — and being ready will matter. 

October was a calm month for the housing market, with many people waiting to see what would happen next. 

• Mortgage rates stayed mostly the same throughout the month. 

• This was mainly because some important economic reports were delayed due to the government shutdown. 

• Without new information, the bond market stayed steady, which helped keep mortgage rates from moving much. 

Federal Reserve updates 

• The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% near the end of the month. 

• This was expected, so rates didn’t change much right away. 

• The Fed said they are watching the job market closely, which has started to slow down. 

• They also announced they will stop pulling money out of the economy in December, which could help keep rates lower over time. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers had a good chance to get pre-approved while rates were steady. 

• Homeowners were encouraged to look at refinancing, since even a small drop in rates could lower monthly payments. 

• Real estate agents had a good reason to check back in with buyers who paused their search earlier this year. 

Bottom line 

October was more about getting ready than making big moves. With the Fed changing its approach and new economic data expected soon, rates could shift — and being prepared can help you take advantage of it.