Housing Market Update

March was defined by continued volatility across markets, driven largely by inflation concerns, Federal Reserve signaling, and escalating geopolitical tensions. While the broader economy showed resilience — particularly in the labor market — persistent inflation and global uncertainty kept upward pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates, leading to more day-to-day movement than buyers have seen in recent months.

Key highlights:

• Mortgage rate movement was closely tied to fluctuations in the 10-year Treasury, which ranged from ~4.12% to ~4.38% throughout the month
• Inflation remained a central concern, with Core CPI holding at 2.5% and Core PCE projections rising to 2.7%
• Labor market data stayed relatively strong, with jobless claims hovering near multi-week lows and steady (though slowing) job growth
• Bond market volatility increased, with sell-offs pushing yields — and mortgage rates — higher at multiple points
• Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and Iran, drove oil prices higher, contributing to renewed inflation pressure
• Markets reacted quickly to both economic data releases and global headlines, creating more short-term rate swings

Federal Reserve updates

• The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady in March, signaling a cautious, data-driven approach
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation — not employment — remains the primary factor guiding policy decisions
• The Fed indicated expectations for at least one rate cut in 2026, but timing remains uncertain and dependent on sustained inflation improvement
• Updated projections showed higher expected inflation (Core PCE at 2.7%), reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative
• Policymakers continue to monitor both inflation trends and labor market softening before making adjustments

What this meant for buyers and homeowners

• Mortgage rates remained volatile, often shifting day to day based on bond market movement and global events
• Strong labor data supported economic stability but did not meaningfully bring rates down on its own
• Inflation pressures — especially from rising oil prices — kept upward pressure on borrowing costs
• Buyers faced a market where timing and strategy mattered more, making pre-approval and readiness key advantages
• Less competition in some markets created opportunity, even as affordability remained a challenge
• Homeowners considering refinancing or equity strategies needed to stay alert to short-term rate dips

Bottom line

March reinforced a key theme for 2026: mortgage rates are being driven less by any single data point and more by a combination of inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy, and global uncertainty. While the economy remains stable, persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions are keeping markets — and rates — reactive. For buyers and homeowners, staying informed and prepared continues to be the best strategy in a market where conditions can shift quickly.

February brought slightly better mortgage rates, steady job growth and new global headlines that kept markets cautious. 

• Mortgage rates improved slightly during the month as bond markets strengthened. 
• The 10-year Treasury gradually fell from about 4.24% early in the month to around 4.02% by the end of February. 
• Job growth stayed steady, with January adding about 130,000 jobs and unemployment holding near 4.3%. 
• Some reports showed hiring may be slowing, which could signal a cooling labor market. 
• Global news — including trade policy changes and tensions in the Middle East — created uncertainty that markets continue to watch. 

Federal Reserve updates 

• The Federal Reserve did not make any major policy changes during February. 
• Economic data showed inflation is still elevated but not accelerating. 
• Strong job growth early in the month suggested the economy remains stable. 
• However, softer private-sector hiring reports later in the month showed signs that the job market may be slowing. 
• Because of mixed signals, the Fed is continuing to monitor inflation and employment data closely before making future rate decisions. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers saw slightly better mortgage rates as bond markets improved. 
• Steady job growth helped keep the housing market stable. 
• Buyers who stayed pre-approved were ready to act when homes became available. 
• Homeowners may see refinance opportunities if rates continue improving in the months ahead. 

Bottom line 

February showed gradual improvement in mortgage rates, steady economic growth and ongoing global uncertainty — leaving the housing market stable but still sensitive to economic updates. 

January saw a steady housing market as investors focused on the Federal Reserve and new economic updates. 

• Mortgage rates stayed mostly flat, with small changes tied to headlines. 

• The 10-year Treasury moved within a narrow range, keeping rate movement limited. 

• Inflation data showed prices are still rising, just more slowly than before. 

• Job growth remained steady, but fewer companies are hiring. 

• These signs point to a cooling economy — not a weak one. 

Federal Reserve updates 

• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in January. 

• This came after three straight rate cuts, so markets expected a pause. 

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the job market is stabilizing. 

• The Fed also removed language that suggested job losses were becoming a bigger risk. 

• Inflation is not getting worse, but it’s still above the Fed’s target. 

• Because of that, the Fed is taking a cautious “wait and see” approach. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers benefited from steady mortgage rates, making it easier to plan and shop confidently. 

• Staying pre-approved helped buyers act quickly when the right home came on the market. 

• Homeowners didn’t see major rate drops, but stability keeps refinance options open if rates improve later. 

Bottom line 

January brought steady rates, a cautious Federal Reserve, and signs of a slowing — but stable — economy, keeping both buyers and homeowners in a good position to plan ahead. 

December wrapped up the year with a calm housing market and a big update from the Federal Reserve.  

• Mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury stayed mostly the same all month. 

• Some reports showed job losses in the private sector. 

• While most people are still working, unemployment has slowly increased. 

• These signs show the job market is cooling, but not in trouble. 

Federal Reserve updates 

• The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% in December. 

• This move was expected, and markets were ready for it. 

• The Fed said it wants to be careful before cutting rates again. 

• Inflation is improving, but it’s still higher than the Fed’s goal. 

• Because of that, the Fed may pause and watch how the economy reacts. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers who stayed pre-approved were ready to act when the right home came along. 

• Homeowners didn’t see big rate drops yet, but a slower economy could bring refinance options in 2026. 

Bottom line 

December ended with steady rates, a careful Federal Reserve and a slower economy — setting the stage for possible opportunities in the new year. 

November was a quieter month for the housing market, with most changes happening behind the scenes. 

• Mortgage rates stayed mostly the same as investors waited for important economic reports that were delayed by the government shutdown. 

• The 10-year Treasury moved a little up and down but stayed in a tight range, helping keep mortgage rates fairly steady. 

• Some inflation signals showed prices are still high, especially for services, while job numbers showed people are still finding work. 

• Overall, the market was calm, but many were waiting for clearer data to know what comes next. 

Federal Reserve updates
 

• The Federal Reserve showed mixed opinions on what to do next, with most members wanting to keep rates steady for now. 

• Toward the end of the month, the government reopened, allowing delayed jobs and inflation reports to be released again. 

• These new reports will help the Fed decide its next move at its December meeting. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers had a good chance to plan ahead, since rates didn’t change much during the month. 

• Homeowners were encouraged to keep an eye on rates, as small drops could create chances to refinance and lower monthly payments. 

• Real estate agents could use this time to reconnect with buyers who had been waiting and help them get ready to act. 

Bottom line 

November was about staying patient and getting prepared. With fresh data coming and the Fed’s next decision ahead, the market could start to move more — and being ready will matter. 

October was a calm month for the housing market, with many people waiting to see what would happen next. 

• Mortgage rates stayed mostly the same throughout the month. 

• This was mainly because some important economic reports were delayed due to the government shutdown. 

• Without new information, the bond market stayed steady, which helped keep mortgage rates from moving much. 

Federal Reserve updates 

• The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% near the end of the month. 

• This was expected, so rates didn’t change much right away. 

• The Fed said they are watching the job market closely, which has started to slow down. 

• They also announced they will stop pulling money out of the economy in December, which could help keep rates lower over time. 

What this meant for buyers and homeowners 

• Buyers had a good chance to get pre-approved while rates were steady. 

• Homeowners were encouraged to look at refinancing, since even a small drop in rates could lower monthly payments. 

• Real estate agents had a good reason to check back in with buyers who paused their search earlier this year. 

Bottom line 

October was more about getting ready than making big moves. With the Fed changing its approach and new economic data expected soon, rates could shift — and being prepared can help you take advantage of it.