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This Week’s Market Reflection: Inspired by Timbuc 3

DC Aiken

  • Modified 3, July, 2025
  • Created 3, July, 2025
  • 5 min read

This week’s musical inspiration comes from Timbuk3’s 1986 hit, The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades.”

Despite today’s employment report showing a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% (down from 4.2%) and non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, markets responded with a marginal uptick in interest rates. However, these numbers are being met with skepticism—particularly following yesterday’s significantly weaker-than-expected ADP employment report.

Wall Street now finds itself at a crossroads, uncertain whether the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate cut later this month. Furthermore, the prospect of three cuts by year-end—once viewed as likely—is now being re-evaluated.

In my view, the broader trend remains intact: the data from June, alongside this week’s reports, point clearly toward a slowing economy. This deceleration should pave the way for lower interest rates as we approach year-end. The recent move from over 7% down into the mid-to-high 6% range on 30-year fixed mortgage rates offers a glimpse of what may lie ahead.

While today’s numbers were not favorable for rates in the short term, I believe this will prove temporary. Subsequent economic data should reinforce the longer-term trend toward lower rates.

DC Aiken is Senior Vice President of Lending for CrossCountry Mortgage, NMLS # 658790. For more insights, you can subscribe to his newsletter at dcaiken.com.

The opinions expressed within this article may not reflect the opinions or views of CrossCountry Mortgage, LLC or its affiliates.