Is There a Bad Moon Rising?
Over the past several weeks, I’ve shared my view that the U.S. economy is quietly slowing to the point where more people may begin using the “R” word (recession) in normal conversation.
Learn More
Mr. President… You Can’t Have Your Cake and Eat It Too
Recently, the President has expressed frustration that the press has failed to fully appreciate—or even acknowledge—his transformation of the U.S. economy into what he repeatedly describes as the “best ever.” This rhetorical flourish will sound familiar to anyone who has listened for more than five minutes.
Learn More
Refinancing: Is It Time? Maybe. But Don’t Get Sold.
Global markets are increasingly signaling skepticism—not panic, but doubt—toward the optimistic economic narrative emanating from Washington. Despite enthusiastic declarations that the U.S. economy is the strongest in history, investor behavior suggests confidence is eroding rather than strengthening.
Learn More
Markets, Messaging, and the Growing Trust Deficit
Global markets are increasingly signaling skepticism—not panic, but doubt—toward the optimistic economic narrative emanating from Washington. Despite enthusiastic declarations that the U.S. economy is the strongest in history, investor behavior suggests confidence is eroding rather than strengthening.
Learn More
Fed Takes Expected Path…Cuts 0.25%—But Mortgage Rates Defy the Usual Script
The Federal Reserve delivered the move markets had fully priced in: a 0.25% cut to its benchmark lending rate. Normally, the mortgage market reacts counterintuitively to Fed cuts—rates often tick higher, not lower, as investors reposition for future policy moves and reassess inflation risks.
Learn More
Lender for Life—or Just Another Transaction?
When buying almost anything, everyone wants a “good deal.” That instinct makes sense. But when it comes to mortgages, many buyers do not fully understand what a good deal actually looks like.
Learn More
Good Intentions, No Follow-Through: Why Policy Uncertainty Is Keeping Markets Flat
Investors aren’t suddenly confused by math. They’re confused by the whiplash. One day it’s tariffs on, next day tariffs off. Government jobs are bloated, then they’re strategic.
Learn More
Just Ask Joe
I’ve spent a good chunk of my adult life sitting across from my buddy Joe Lunch Pail talking about the economy. Not the kind with charts, graphs, or some guy on TV pointing at a screen.
Learn More
Who Needs “Real” Economic Data When We Have Joe Lunch Pail…
As we approach next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, markets are placing slightly better than even odds on a 25-basis-point rate cut—far from the 50-basis-point move that was circulating among analysts back in October.
Learn More
I Simply Just Don’t Understand…
Metro Atlanta’s housing market has entered a clear—and in some price bands undeniable—buyer’s market. Homes that once sold in days now routinely sit for 60 to 90 days or more, even in sought-after areas.
Learn More