Just Ask Joe

I’ve spent a good chunk of my adult life sitting across from my buddy Joe Lunch Pail talking about the economy. Not the kind with charts, graphs, or some guy on TV pointing at a screen—but the kind where you’re drinking coffee that’s been on the burner too long and somebody says, “This just doesn’t feel right.”

Now Joe doesn’t have an economics degree. He doesn’t know what a regression model is, and he thinks a yield curve is something you take too fast in a pickup truck. But what Joe does have is a front-row seat to real life. While I’m staring at inflation reports and bond yields, Joe’s telling me what’s happening at the gas pump, the grocery store, and the break room at work.

The other day Joe about fell out of his chair when I told him bankruptcies in parts of bourbon country are higher than they’ve been since Prohibition. He said, “Well that explains it—when folks can’t afford bourbon, you know something’s wrong.” And the more we talked, the more it made sense. Costs are up, people are buying less, and nobody’s splurging like they used to—unless you count splurging on eggs.

Joe told me something that really stuck. For the first time in over 20 years, he’s worried about his job. Now if you know Joe, that’s saying something. This is a guy who used to think “job security” meant showing up on time and not lighting anything on fire. But wages haven’t kept up, prices sure have, and the dollar just doesn’t stretch like it used to. If money were elastic, ours snapped a long time ago.

And it’s not just bourbon. Craft beer’s gone flat, over 20% of new 2025 vehicles are still sitting on lots, and restaurants that have been around longer than some marriages are quietly locking the doors. When you see that many “Going Out of Business” signs, it starts looking less like coincidence and more like a pattern.

Now don’t get me wrong—this isn’t the end of the world, and I’m not predicting economic doom in 2026. The stock market’s doing just fine, thank you very much. But if you think everything’s great because the Dow’s hitting records, you might also think your house is clean because you shoved everything in the closet.

So, if you really want to know how the economy’s doing, you can listen to politicians, economists, or Wall Street analysts. Or… you can sit down with a guy like Joe. Because sometimes the clearest economic indicator isn’t a spreadsheet—it’s when regular folks start saying, “Man, this used to be easier.”

And that’s when you know it’s time to just ask Joe.